Study brief
What this study answers
Study purpose
Find the most commercially defensible development for a narrow 577–600 m² plot near Melasti Beach, using local rental pricing, competitor properties, design layouts and 10-year projections.
Controlling source
The updated 10-year projection workbook (Recommendation, Our ADR vs Market, Competitor, Inputs and the model tabs) supersedes the earlier 3BR, 12-apartment and hybrid proposals.
Evidence standard
Competitor rates are single-date asking prices; occupancy is operator underwriting; market values are estimated asking values; coverage and height are test-fit claims.
01 · Site & location
A narrow, tapered plot near Melasti Beach
Road access on the short western side, a 38–39 m deep footprint, and an ocean view that only opens up from roughly the third storey.
Land geometry & access
Current study basis — area discrepancy affects every test-fit
- Gross area
- 600 m² nominal; the model also cites ≈577 m².
- Long side
- 38–39 metres.
- Short side
- 13–17 metres.
- Access
- Road at the short western side.
- Ocean view
- Owner reports visibility only above roughly three storeys.
- Status
- Survey, KKPR, KDB, KLB, heights and setbacks unverified. KDB of 35%, 42% and 50% are model inputs, not permissions.
The opportunity
Where the premium comes from
Beach-oriented southern Bali positioning, access to high-value leisure guests and a design-forward hospitality product. Premium value must come from privacy, genuinely usable rooftop facilities and measurable guest experience, not only ocean-view advertising.
Primary constraints
What could stop or slow it
Narrow road frontage, shared vehicle entry, adjoining buildings, uncertain upper-level view, rooftop-pool loads, wastewater and water availability, and possible changes in neighbouring development.
02 · Destination & demand
Who comes to Melasti, and what that means
Beach-club day traffic is not the same as overnight room-nights, and a busy development pipeline can cap rates even in a popular destination.
Who stays here?
Couples, families, friends and celebratory groups have different price and space needs. Melasti visitors and beach-club day traffic do not automatically become overnight room-nights.
Local development momentum
Southern Uluwatu and Melasti have hotel, villa and apartment projects in progress. New inventory can suppress price and occupancy even if the destination stays popular.
Pricing strategy
Premium villas can differentiate on pool privacy and whole-estate group stays. Townhouses need strong layouts to beat abundant 2BR stock. Apartments need a real rate premium and a true rooftop experience to justify dense construction.
Before investment approval
03 · Supply
Ungasan / Pandawa inventory by bedroom
2BR is the most crowded segment. 4BR stock is thin and commands far higher rates, which is the gap Model A aims at.
Brixfox Sep-2026 sample of 1,439 Ungasan/Pandawa listings. A wider catchment than the plot; calendar-derived occupancy is not realised booked occupancy.
04 · Demand test
Occupancy: market versus our plan
Area averages from AirROI sit well below the Year 1 assumptions in the model. The plan relies on an operator that beats the local average.
Occupancy rates are not interchangeable across platforms and regions. A flat 45% case is essential for downside planning.
Market · AirROI
Our plan · Year 1
05 · Competitor benchmarking
25 competitors, three product sets
Booking.com rates for one sample stay date per listing. Melasti and Uluwatu give local relevance; Canggu, Berawa and Bingin show what premium product can charge.
Source selection
25 competitor properties from the workbook: 8 four-bedroom villas, 8 townhouse/residential products and 9 apartment/studio products, across Melasti/Uluwatu and wider premium Bali districts.
Why the wider area matters
Melasti gives geographic relevance; Canggu, Berawa and Bingin show achievable architecture and higher-end price ranges. Cross-area ADR needs location, room-size, view and season adjustments.
Standard / upscale / premium
Categories are as entered in the workbook, not audited star ratings. Mixed 2BR/3BR townhouse rates are not a clean benchmark for a new 3BR townhouse.
Rates
Each rate is one sampled date, not realised ADR. Mixed geography and quality: match occupancy, stay dates and taxes before comparing.
Competitive pricing tiers
Set average vs our Year 1 price, live from the workbook
| Segment | Set average (live) | Melasti proposed | Premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4BR villas | Rp 8.29 m | Rp 11.00 m | +32.6% |
| Townhouses (mixed 2BR/3BR) | Rp 3.42 m | Rp 4.50 m | +31.6% |
| 1BR apartments | Rp 1.22 m | Rp 1.80 m | +47.5% |
Our Year 1 ADR
Rp 11.00 m
A · Villas
Set average
Rp 8.29 m
8 listings
Our premium
+32.6%
vs set average
Highest in set
Rp 12.26 m
Nightly rate by listing · 4BR villas
Listings
| Property | Location | m² | Beds | Rate (Rp) ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyvin Melasti Villa | Melasti | 360 | 4 | 12,264,182 |
| Munno Villa | Canggu | 320 | 4 | 8,892,614 |
| Alex Villas Complex N1 | Canggu | 320 | 4 | 8,892,614 |
| Black Villas Canggu | Canggu | 350 | 4 | 8,100,000 |
| Aquamarine Tanah Barak by BREIG | Canggu | 225 | 4 | 7,722,000 |
| Kulu Villa 4BR Luxury Villa with Rooftop | Uluwatu | 300 | 4 | 7,385,000 |
| The Young Villas - Uluwatu | Uluwatu | 200 | 4 | 7,115,526 |
| Ocean Verve Villa 4 BR | Melasti | – | 4 | 5,985,000 |
Reading the premium
- Premium / upscale evidence: LYVIN Melasti Villa is the nearest high-rate 4BR comparator at Rp 12.26 m. Other 4BR listings are materially lower; one premium anchor does not prove a year-round Rp 11 m achieved ADR.
- What changes with location and scale: 44 m² apartments must justify a 47.5% premium over a mixed sample. Townhouse rates are mostly 2BR stock, so 3BR needs matched comparisons. Villas are ≈225–230 m² against several larger 4BR competitors.
Evidence limitations
- Rates: One sampled date per OTA competitor, shown without verified booking conditions.
- Like-for-like: The market categories mix locations and bedroom counts.
- Occupancy: Occupancy is operator underwriting from area-level AirROI/Brixfox estimates, not booked nights.
- Pipeline: The 0–500 m construction pipeline, beach access and noise at the parcel remain unverified.
Premium development references across Bali
| Reference | Model | Relevant lesson |
|---|---|---|
| LYVIN Melasti | Luxury villas / apartments | Local premium rate and product supply |
| The Collection Vol.1 | Large Japandi villas | Quiet-luxury finishes, living space |
| NOVA by OXO | Pool villa | Living-room / pool flow |
| SUNNY Village | Luxury townhouse | Multi-level product, developer resale |
| NEXA Studio | Premium studio apartments | ≈32/40/45 m² product sizing |
| FIRA / VELA Uluwatu | Boutique hospitality | Design-specific ADR differentiation |
| Luna Residences | Terraced residences | Architecture and rooftop expression |
06 · Sale value assumptions
Indicated values are not closed sales
Completed-complex market value per concept, as assumed in the model. These drive every yield and payback figure.
Market sales value, full complex
units × value per unit
2 units × Rp 13.35 bn
5 units × Rp 6.23 bn
15 units × Rp 2.76 bn
Why these are assumptions
- Source: Sale values are estimated asking/sale values from the Inputs tab, not completed transactions.
- Profit: Developer profit and IRR cannot be inferred from sale price alone: construction CAPEX, land basis, tax and sales expenses are needed.
- Title: Unit sales (5 townhouse or 15 apartment titles) are conditional on independent sale legality and title type.